If you ask many people who play roulette, they will swear that there are clear trends that surface during a typical game of roulette. While this is a common perception, however, it is also one that has led to the downfall of many an aspiring roulette player. 2 scientists reckon that you can beat the roulette wheel with Chaos Theory, but you’ll need some sophisticated technology and deep pockets. Let’s get back to trends, the opposite of chaos theory!
This belief has a name- it’s known as the Gambler’s Fallacy and it is a product of players over-complicating games and the strategies that they use to try and beat the wheel. Rather than recognising and accepting the element of chance that pervades roulette, many players spend their time fixating on the notion that it is possible to identify trends and predict the outcome of a random wheel spin.
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Are there Trends and Number Patterns in Roulette?
So, let’s go back to the original question: are there trends or number patterns present during a game of roulette? Lots of systems, like the Even Double Dozen Combo feature them. The short answer is yes, although this does not mean that these are actionable trends that can help you to predict the outcome of the next spin of a wheel. Roulette wheel manufacturers like TSC John Huxley go to great lengths to make sure that there wheels perform randomly. They even have in rim sensors to check that they are performing randomly.
However, there are patterns that may emerge if you look at tthe results of a number of roulette spins over a length of time. If you were to spin a standard roulette wheel 10 times, you might expect to see a similar number of red results as black results. You might not for 10 spins, as it is quite a small sample. If you spun the wheel 100 times, you might be more confident of a 50/50 distribution (or at least a 48.7/48.7 % one- remember there’s a green zero pocket in roulette – well, 2 zero pockets in American Roulette games actually, and then we are talking a 47.4/47.4% distribution). If you sat at the roulette table for 1000 spins, you might be more confident still.
In short, if you spin the wheel enough times there is a chance that you will be able to decipher a pattern or trend that makes numerical sense. It’s just a matter of statistical variation.
So Where’s The Problem?
The problem is this. In roulette, you don’t bet on what is going to happen over 10, 100 or 1000 spins (I wish you could). You bet on what is going to happen over 1 spin. The next spin coming up in fact. And no matter what patterns you think are emerging for historical bets, where the ball is going to land on the next spin bears no relation to it. That next spin is a mutually exclusive even which only depends on how fast the croupier spins the wheel, when he releases the ball, the friction of the whell, etc etc. You can’t predict future individual events based on past results. You can make an educated guesss as to what is going to happen over the next 10, 100 or 1000 spins. But you can’t bet on that (not at a standard roulette casino anyway).
If the wheel you are playing on is not perfect, then there may be sectors that the ball land in more often than others. The problem is identifying these biased roulette wheels, and once you have identified them, identifying their hot zones. This is very hard, as the imperfections may be tiny and there are so many variables at play. Yu are not going to find any biased wheel playing video roulette, as they are all programmed to be perfect wheels, but you might I suppose if you were playing on a real wheel online – it´s pretty hard to spot a biased wheel over a webcam though!
The gamblers fallacy can sound the death knell for even skilled players, so it is far better to adopt a simple approach when gambling. Don’t get sucked in to an overly complex and convoluted roulette strategy, as this will cloud your thinking and ultimately cause you to lose money. Understand the random element of chance that defines roulette. Try and cut short your losses and extend your winning streaks and try and quit while your ahead. And if you can’t do that, then make sure you quit the table when you have hit your stop loss.